Artificial Intelligence and International Relations

Artificial Intelligence and National Security    
Greg Allen Taniel Chan
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School | July 2017 
Project Overview
Partially autonomous and intelligent systems have been used in military technology since at least the Second World War, but advances in machine learning and Artificial Intelligence (AI) represent a turning point in the use of automation in warfare. Though the United States military and intelligence communities are planning for expanded use of AI across their portfolios, many of the most transformative applications of AI have not yet been addressed.
In this piece, we propose three goals for developing future policy on AI and national security: preserving U.S. technological leadership, supporting peaceful and commercial use, and mitigating catastrophic risk. By looking at four prior cases of transformative military technology—nuclear, aerospace, cyber, and biotech—we develop lessons learned and recommendations for national security policy toward AI.
https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/artificial-intelligence-and-national-security


Artificial Intelligence and the Military 
Robert W. Button
RAND - September 7, 2017 
The Department of Defense (DoD) is increasingly interested in Artificial Intelligence (AI). During a recent trip to Amazon, Google, and other Silicon Valley companies, Secretary of Defense James Mattis remarked that AI has “got to be better integrated by the DoD.” What do we mean by the term AI? In particular, what does “deep learning” mean? What are the advantages, disadvantages, and risks of using AI? What are potential additional military applications for AI? What Is AI?  AI is poorly understood in part because its definition is constantly evolving. As computers master additional tasks previously thought only possible by humans, the bar for what is considered “intelligent” rises higher. Recently, one of the most productive areas in the field of AI has been in technologies that can train software to learn and think on its own. This area is moving swiftly and appears to be accelerating. Simultaneously, “old school” AI using rule-based approaches are being abandoned. In the next decades, AI systems that can be trained, learn, and think independently will likely dominate the field of AI. This brings us to deep learning, a field that has made tremendous strides in recent years and generated considerable excitement.
https://www.rand.org/blog/2017/09/artificial-intelligence-and-the-military.html


Artificial Intelligence and International Politics
Valerie M. Hudson
For over a decade researchers in international relations have sought ways to combine the rigor of quantitative techniques with the richness of qualitative data. Many have discovered that artificial intelligence computer models allow them to do just that. This is an overview of their research.
https://www.amazon.com/Artificial-Intelligence-International-Politics-Valerie/dp/0813309379


Political Science in the Age of Artificial Intelligence
Ronny Patz
Political science, probably like many other social sciences, seems stuck in an age that many of our students have never lived, and will never live. Our students live in an age of Artificial Intelligence
(AI) and of problems that are far beyond local borders in a world dominated by thinking within borders.  In this age, it is time to work together on a global scale and to develop the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) for political science. This political science LHC would build on the recent developments in machine learning, deep learning, neural networks, and bring together thousands of political scientists and academics from other disciplines to start understanding political dynamics at a planetary scale.  I use the “LHC” as metaphor for an endeavour where large-scale collaboration of people of diverse backgrounds,  use of new technologies, and fast and open science come together with one purpose: to understand and provide ideas for a world that is evolving so fast that our local political systems and global institutions cannot follow suit unless political science evolves at the speed of society and technology.
http://polscieu.ideasoneurope.eu/2017/02/22/political-science-age-artificial-intelligence-global-institutions/


Artificial Intelligence: Applications and Implications for International Security

17 Jul 2015 - 14:00 to 15:30

Chatham House, London

Discussions about the future of artificial intelligence (AI), whether philosophical or popular, tend to view artificial intelligence as distinct from, and a potential threat to, human intelligence. But the potential applications for AI in assisting the human decision-making process on international financial, political and military issues have gone underexamined. These issues are often discussed in highly technical terms, the substance of which is inaccessible to non-expert communities, including business leaders, policy-makers and the majority of the public. This event, jointly hosted by the US Project and the International Security Department, will allow researchers and policy-makers to explore areas of common concern as these technologies become increasingly integrated into decision-making structures.
https://www.chathamhouse.org/event/artificial-intelligence-applications-and-implications-international-security


Artificial Intelligence and International Politics Gaming
By Charles L. Mitchell
Attempts to evaluate the international situation have for some time appreciated the  potential of international politics games for improving perceptions of political reality.   Usually in the past, international politics games resembled ordinary board games with  persons representing various international entities contending as adversaries.  In a few  situations, international politics games were developed that involved substantial amounts  of role-playing among the protagonists.  Whether the international politics game situation  was game board oriented or based on role-playing instructions and simulations, the  technique encouraged developing one's imagination about the difficulties of the  international entity being played.
http://paperroom.ipsa.org/papers/paper_5420.pdf


Artificial Intelligence and Formal Models of International Behavior
Philip A. Schrodt
The American Sociologist Vol. 19, No. 1 (Spring, 1988), pp. 71-85 
During the past five years, models and techniques developed in artificial intelligence (AI) have been applied to a wide variety of topics in international relations (IR). These applications build on a theoretical base established at MIT during the 1970s, and the expansion of the applications reflects both changes in AI research and limitations of alternative models such as statistical modeling and rational choice approaches. Current applications in IR/AI tend to fall into three categories. First, there have been extensive applications of if-then rules in expert systems and simulations. Second, many models emphasize the role of historical precedent in IR decision making. Third, a variety of approaches employing natural language are under development. These AI techniques have extended considerably the range and complexity of formal models of international behavior.
https://www.jstor.org/stable/27698411?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents


Beyond a Human Framework of International Relations
Brett Daniel Shehadey
Diplomaticourier - February 18, 2013 
The Information Revolution is quickly transitioning into an Augmented Technological Revolution. The previous ways that humanity interfaces with the world are being replaced with revolutionary mobile platforms. This has profound implications for the international system over the next few decades. Both the way it will soon operate and the autonomy of advanced artificial intelligence will create new dimensions beyond strictly human interactions.  Augmented Reality (AR) is presently extending the Information Age a step further. AR is defined as the real-time digital enhancement of reality. This is currently being accomplished through software applications using cell phones, digital goggles, GPS, video cameras, sensors, microphones, CPU, internet and digital voice assistance in real-time. One’s reality is instantly enhanced by literally adding a digital, or artificial, layer of reality.
https://www.diplomaticourier.com/beyond-a-human-framework-of-international-relations/

Artificial Intelligence on the Front Lines
Thom Dixon
Australian Institute of International Affairs - 03 Jan 2017
Autonomous technologies are rapidly advancing in multiple industries; from transport to manufacturing, artificial intelligence is gaining steam. Military AI, however, faces a unique set of challenges: the lethal capabilities of drones pose moral, ethical, and legal questions. How does the international community regulate the use of AI in conflicts?  Lethal autonomous weapon systems (LAWS)—better known as killer robots—do not exist yet, but as the Open Letter from AI and Robotics Researchers points out, even their prospective existence is of great concern. But the concern about the new weapons systems may be misguided because it does not encompass the threat posed by the artificial intelligence (AI) programs behind their operation. International efforts to ban LAWS have been side-tracked by the concept of killer robots, when it is the intelligence of the robots that is the real issue.
http://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/australianoutlook/artificial-intelligence-on-the-front-lines/

Artificial Intelligence
CSIS
Artificial intelligence is transforming every aspect of our lives, from the way we work to the way we shop and socialize. This technology has the potential to deliver incredible benefits to society, increasing efficiency, improving safety and quality of life, transforming health care, and delivering new capabilities that we cannot even imagine. How can we manage the risks, disruptions and fears of artificial intelligence to maximize its benefits to our economy and society?
https://www.csis.org/programs/technology-policy-program/technology-and-innovation/artificial-intelligence