Strategy, Evolution, and War: From Apes to Artificial Intelligence by Kenneth Payne

Georgetown University Press, 2018


Decisions about war have always been made by humans, but now intelligent machines are on the cusp of changing things - with dramatic consequences for international affairs. This book explores the evolutionary origins of human strategy, and makes a provocative argument that Artificial Intelligence will radically transform the nature of war by changing the psychological basis of decision-making about violence.
Strategy, Evolution, and War is a cautionary preview of how Artificial Intelligence (AI) will revolutionize strategy more than any development in the last three thousand years of military history. Kenneth Payne describes strategy as an evolved package of conscious and unconscious behaviors with roots in our primate ancestry. Our minds were shaped by the need to think about warfare—a constant threat for early humans. As a result, we developed a sophisticated and strategic intelligence.
The implications of AI are profound because they depart radically from the biological basis of human intelligence. Rather than being just another tool of war, AI will dramatically speed up decision making and use very different cognitive processes, including when deciding to launch an attack, or escalate violence. AI will change the essence of strategy, the organization of armed forces, and the international order.
This book is a fascinating examination of the psychology of strategy-making from prehistoric times, through the ancient world, and into the modern age.

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Kenneth Payne is a senior lecturer in the School of Security Studies at King's College, London. He is also a senior member of St Antony's College, Oxford University, having earlier been a visiting fellow in the Department of International Relations there. Payne's research is broadly in the field of political psychology and strategic studies. He is the author of two previous books, The Psychology of Strategy: Exploring Rationality in the Vietnam War and The Psychology of Modern Conflict.

Table of Contents
Introduction
Part 1: The Evolution of Strategists
1. Defining Strategy as Psychology
2. Evolutionary Strategy
3. Strategic Heuristics and Biases
Part 2: Culture Meets Evolved Strategy
4. The Pen and the Sword in Ancient Greece
5. Clausewitz Explores the Psychology of Strategy
6. Nuclear Weapons Are Not Psychologically Revolutionary
Part 3: Artificial Intelligence and Strategy
7. Tactical Artificial Intelligence Arrives
8. Artificial General Intelligence Does Strategy
Conclusion: Strategy Evolves beyond AI