Dr H.A. Hellyer
Daily News Egypt
December 4, 2012
Facebook, TV polls, and 24-hour street surveys to ‘prove’
the popularity of President Morsy’s recent decree giving him supra-legal
powers.
I may be biased in my view of those claims. I do not refer to my bias
vis-à-vis the Muslim Brotherhood. To my cost, I’ve always tried to
portray the Brotherhood as a regular political force, rather than a
group of aliens from outer space, hell-bent on sending Egypt into the
dark ages.
Rather, I refer to a bias built over years of sociological research
and survey analysis. That background corrupted me: otherwise, I might
have more easily forgotten that, for example, a Facebook poll in a
country where the internet has less than a 15 per cent penetration rate
is somewhat preposterous. Perhaps I might have been more easily
convinced that a survey on a TV station that is already renowned for its
bias towards the Muslim Brotherhood is perhaps not the most objective
source. Or maybe I might have neglected the fact that face-to-face
street polls in a country of 83 million people can’t actually be done in
24 hours, even if your sample sizes are perfect.
On the other hand, I’m not quite sure what to make of the opposition,
and its strategy. Actually, let us not call it a strategy – I’m not
actually sure if there is one to speak of. There is mobilisation: that
is for sure. What they are mobilised for, on the other hand, remains a
bit of a mystery. Calling for a sit-in in Tahrir is not a strategy – at
best, it’s just fodder for those who outside of the square ask, ”Where
are the youth of the revolution who wanted elections to be delayed, so
they could prepare?” At worst, it’s just whining.
To read more....
No comments:
Post a Comment