Robert J. Gordon
The Wall Street Journal
December 21, 2012
Nothing has been more central to America's self-confidence than the
faith that robust economic growth will continue forever. Between 1891
and 2007, the nation achieved a robust 2% annual growth rate of output
per person. Unfortunately, the evidence suggests to me that future
economic growth will achieve at best half that historic rate. The old
rate allowed the American standard of living to double every 35 years;
for most people in the future that doubling may take a century or more.
The growth of the past century wasn't built on manna from heaven. It
resulted in large part from a remarkable set of inventions between 1875
and 1900. These started with Edison's electric light bulb (1879) and
power station (1882), making possible everything from elevator buildings
to consumer appliances. Karl Benz invented the first workable
internal-combustion engine the same year as Edison's light bulb.
This narrow
time frame saw the introduction of running water and indoor plumbing,
the greatest event in the history of female liberation, as women were
freed from carrying literally tons of water each year. The telephone,
phonograph, motion picture and radio also sprang into existence. The
period after World War II saw another great spurt of invention, with the
development of television, air conditioning, the jet plane and the
interstate highway system.
The profound boost that these innovations gave to economic growth would
be difficult to repeat. Only once could transport speed be increased
from the horse (6 miles per hour) to the Boeing 707 (550 mph). Only once could outhouses be replaced by running water
and indoor plumbing. Only once could indoor temperatures, thanks to
central heating and air conditioning, be converted from cold in winter
and hot in summer to a uniform year-round climate of 68 to 72 degrees
Fahrenheit.
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