Tell me and I forget. Teach me and I remember. Involve me and I learn. Benjamin Franklin

Wednesday, September 25, 2013

Emerging Markets Are Stuck on Fed’s Elevator Ride

By Jim O’Neill

Bloomberg News - July 10, 2013

Back in the 1960s, a French finance minister called the U.S.’s ability to borrow in its own currency -- thanks to the dollar’s pre-eminence and reserve-currency status -- an “exorbitant privilege.” It’s an advantage that the rest of the world has to pay for, one way or another. This has lately given many emerging-market governments cause for complaint.
If they had the will, one or two of them could do something about it. Maybe it’s time they did.
The issue has been highlighted in recent weeks as the Federal Reserve (FDTR) unsettled global markets by signaling its intent to start tightening monetary policy -- at least, that’s what investors thought it said. There was a sell-off in global fixed-income markets, and many emerging economies saw the value of their bonds, equities and currencies drop.
Not long ago, emerging-market governments complained about the Fed’s stimulus policy. They pointed to destabilizing inflows of hot money and called it a “currency war,” an attempt to export unemployment and price emerging-economy exports out of the U.S. market. Now they’re alarmed because the policy is ending. Such is life on the receiving end of the exorbitant privilege.
New York Federal Reserve President Bill Dudley, a former colleague of mine at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., once warned me, “Be careful what you wish for.” The context wasn’t quite the same -- we were discussing the dangers of shrinking the U.S. current-account deficit too quickly while global demand was still weak -- but it’s still good advice.

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