Reliable data on militant recruitment in the region is hard to come by. That isn’t stopping Central Asia’s rulers from using the threat of the Islamic State as a political tool.
By Reid Standish
Foreign Policy - February 6, 2015
When it comes to the Islamic State’s potential threat to Central Asia, no one quite seems to be able to tell the difference between reality and speculation.
On Monday, Uzbekistan’s domestic intelligence agency announced that it had intercepted communications indicating that the militants were planning to carry out terrorist attacks in the country in the spring. The same day, Kyrgyzstan’s Interior Ministry said it had uncovered 83 cases of recruiters trying to bring fighters to Syria.
Fighters returning from Syria have not carried out any attacks in Central Asia and apart from such statements from state security organs, there is little reliable information to be had on the inroads the Islamic State has made in the region. The question of how many Central Asian citizens have joined up with the Islamic State or have professed jihadist sympathies has now become a volatile political issue. Hyping the threat could provide justification for the region’s strongmen to further consolidate power. At the same time, terror experts agree that Central Asia has become a recruitment hub for the militant group.
“The estimates and figures from Central Asian governments are all highly politicized and speculative,” says John Heathershaw, a Central Asia expert at the University of Exeter. “The simple truth is that no one has an accurate figure.”
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