By Juan Cole | Jan. 1, 2016
My own feeling is that the US engagement with the Middle East is likely
to remain so intense only for another two decades or so. As fossil
fuels are replaced with renewables, the outsized role that the oil Gulf
plays in world affairs will decline. The region is otherwise relatively
low in resources (though apparently its phosphate could become more
valuable over time). The Suez Canal will remain a strategic
consideration, and the US domestic connection to Israel, while it may
weaken because of the latter’s turn to fascism, will not entirely
attenuate. President Obama’s instinct that the economic and diplomatic
future of the US is primarily in the Pacific rim is probably correct but
20 years premature.
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