by Andrew Maddocks Andrew Maddocks, Robert Samuel Young and Paul Reig
WORLD RESOURCES INSTITUTE - August 26, 2015
The world’s demand for water is likely to surge in the next few
decades. Rapidly growing populations will drive increased consumption by
people, farms and companies. More people will move to cities, further
straining supplies. An emerging middle class could clamor for more
water-intensive food production and electricity generation.
But it’s not clear where all that water will come from. Climate
change is expected to make some areas drier and others wetter. As
precipitation extremes increase in some regions, affected communities
face greater threats from droughts and floods.
While changing water supply and demand is inevitable, exactly what
that change will look like around the world is far from certain. A
first-of-its-kind analysis by WRI sheds new light on the issue.
Using an ensemble of climate models and socioeconomic scenarios,
WRI scored and ranked future water stress—a measure of competition and
depletion of surface water—in 167 countries by 2020, 2030, and 2040. We
found that 33 countries face extremely high water stress in 2040 (see the full list).
We also found that Chile, Estonia, Namibia, and Botswana could face an
especially significant increase in water stress by 2040. This means that
businesses, farms, and communities in these countries in particular may
be more vulnerable to scarcity than they are today.
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