Project Syndicate - August 21, 2015
NEW YORK – To anyone
over the age of 60 who follows world affairs, the term “two Chinas”
recalls the post-1949 competition for diplomatic recognition waged by
mainland (“Red”) China and Taiwan, or, more formally, the People’s
Republic of China and the Republic of China. By the early 1970s, just
about every country fell in line with the People’s Republic’s demand
that it alone be recognized as the legitimate sovereign government of
China. The mainland was simply too large and too important economically
and strategically to alienate.
Today, a new, but
very different, “two Chinas” question is emerging. It centers on whether
China is best understood as a strong country, with a promising future
despite some short-term difficulties, or as a country facing serious
structural problems and uncertain long-term prospects. In short, two
very different Chinas can now be glimpsed. But which one will prevail?
Until recently, there
was little reason to ask such a question. China’s economy was growing
at an astounding average annual rate of 10% or higher for more than
three decades. China had overtaken Japan as the world’s second largest
economy. Hundreds of millions of Chinese had entered the middle class.
China’s model of authoritarian efficiency seemed attractive to many
other developing countries, particularly in the wake of the 2008 global
financial crisis, which began in the United States and thus seemed to
discredit American-style liberal capitalism.
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